Macrovision reconstructed history · June 2026 endpoint
The June 2026 endpoint is expansionary in both regions, but the supporting evidence weakened. United States MRS fell 8.00 points in June to 63.00, United States RFI crossed into Watch at 26.67, euro-area RFI remained higher at 36.17, and Lens Confidence ended at a 5-year low in each region: 78.32 in the United States and 64.31 in the euro area. The joint reading is a positive macro state with reduced evidence robustness, not a forecast.
Reconstructed endpoint
All values below are frozen June 2026 reconstructed readings. Changes are index-point differences over 1, 6 and 12 months under the same current method. A higher MRS is more expansionary, a higher RFI is more fragile and a higher Lens Confidence reading means stronger evidence.
| Indicator | United States level | US change: 1m / 6m / 12m | Euro-area level | EA change: 1m / 6m / 12m | Current regional difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macrovision Regime Score (MRS) | 63.00 · Expansionary for 21 months. | −8.00 / +1.67 / −0.67. | 61.67 · Expansionary for 6 months. | 0.00 / +6.67 / +0.34. | United States higher by 1.33. |
| Revision Fragility Index (RFI) | 26.67 · Watch for 1 month. | +4.06 / +5.82 / +3.92. | 36.17 · Watch for 32 months. | +1.04 / +8.59 / +1.03. | Euro area higher by 9.50. |
| Macrovision Lens Confidence | 78.32 · Good Confidence for 9 months. | −4.05 / −5.22 / −5.15. | 64.31 · Provisional for 3 months. | −4.94 / −18.11 / −12.91. | United States higher by 14.01. |
3 reconstructed findings
These findings are analytical statements about the frozen reconstruction, not official Monthly claim changes. The page distinguishes supporting and countervailing evidence and does not manufacture component drivers, prognosis probabilities or causal explanations.
Reconstructed finding 1
United States MRS ended at 63.00 after an 8.00-point June fall and a reconstructed 3-month change of −8.67 points. The reading remains above the 55-point Expansionary boundary and has stayed in that band for 21 months. Countervailing evidence comes from the euro area: MRS held at 61.67 in June, gained 6.67 points over 6 months and sits 1.91 points above its 12-month average.
Reconstructed finding 2
United States RFI rose 4.06 points to 26.67 and crossed from Stable into Watch. Euro-area RFI ended higher at 36.17 and has remained in Watch since November 2023. The readings sit at sample midrank percentiles 97.5 and 95.8, respectively, but neither region reached the 50-point Fragile boundary.
Reconstructed finding 3
United States Lens Confidence fell to 78.32 but retained Good Confidence. Euro-area Lens Confidence fell to 64.31, 12.91 points below June 2025, and has been Provisional since April 2026. The 14.01-point regional gap shows that the euro-area state reading carries a materially weaker evidence package than the United States reading.
Attribution boundary
All 360 public history records contain empty driver arrays. The report therefore attributes no movement to a specific release, policy, institution or ontology block. Component attribution will remain absent until governed driver records are available and frozen with the report.
Regime history
Both regions moved down from elevated 2021–22 readings and ended close together in Expansionary territory. Neither regional MRS entered Soft or Contractionary during the 60-month window.
60-month governed-scale chart
Revision history
The euro area has carried the more persistent revision burden, while the United States re-entered Watch only at the June endpoint. A high RFI qualifies confidence in a reading; RFI does not estimate the probability or direction of a future revision.
60-month governed-scale chart
Evidence history
Both confidence readings ended at the minimum of their 60-month reconstructed histories. The United States retained Good Confidence, while the euro area crossed into Provisional in April 2026.
60-month governed-scale chart
Turning points and divergence
The episode summaries are mechanical calculations from adjacent monthly values and aligned regional series. They identify when the reconstructed indicators moved most, not why they moved.
Largest regime falls
United States MRS fell 10.50 points, from 74.83 to 64.33, in August 2022. Euro-area MRS fell 17.33 points, from 70.00 to 52.67, in May 2025. Both remained above the 45-point Soft boundary after the move.
Regime convergence
United States MRS was 19.00 points below euro-area MRS at the maximum absolute regional gap in April 2023. By June 2026, the United States reading was 1.33 points higher.
Fragility divergence
Euro-area RFI exceeded United States RFI by 15.97 points in April 2026, the largest absolute difference in the set. The difference narrowed to 9.50 points by June, with both regions in Watch.
Confidence divergence
United States Lens Confidence exceeded the euro-area reading by 14.68 points in April 2026 and by 14.01 points in June. June was the minimum confidence observation for both regional series.
Conditional reading: expansion remains the endpoint state, but uncertainty around that state has increased.
Read publication methodologyWhat would strengthen the reading
A subsequent reconstruction would strengthen the joint reading if both MRS values remain at or above 55, United States RFI returns below 25, euro-area RFI moves materially towards 25 and euro-area Lens Confidence returns to at least 70.
What would weaken the reading
The reading would weaken if either MRS falls below 55, either RFI reaches the 50-point Fragile boundary, euro-area confidence remains below 70, or United States confidence falls below the 70-point Good threshold.
Outlook status
The six histories describe a past-to-present reconstruction. They do not supply a cutoff-valid probability distribution, forecast escrow record or realised-outcome score. A directional forecast would exceed the available evidence.
Next official publication
The August issue will require point-in-time evidence, a declared cutoff, methodology, limitations, review and approval. The reconstructed July review does not pre-empt that publication.
Open publication schedule and statusEvidence quality and replay
The report binds the displayed facts to a versioned JSON dataset and a row-level CSV. The artefacts preserve values, bands, changes, quality, cutoffs, observation identities and public calculation hashes.
| Control | Recorded result | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar completeness | 360 of 360 expected points; 6 series × 60 months. | No missing month, null value, repeated observation identity or missing calculation hash. |
| Latest quality | Coverage and confidence are 1.00 for 5 series and 0.85 for euro-area RFI; latest warnings are empty. | Euro-area RFI carries the lowest endpoint quality metadata despite complete calendar coverage. |
| Early-history warnings | Each series has 22 warning-bearing points from July 2021 through April 2023. | Early percentile comparisons had fewer than the target 12- and 60-period histories. |
| Driver records | 0 across all 360 observations. | Input-level attribution and causal explanation are unavailable and suppressed. |
| Calculation hashes | 60 unique hashes, shared across the 6 indicators within each economic month. | The retained history has formula-pack monthly lineage, not BBTC v2 per-indicator replay hashes. |
| Dataset hash | sha256:. | Hash of the frozen JSON evidence document before its hash field is attached. |
| CSV hash | sha256:. | SHA-256 of the downloadable 360-row CSV bytes. |
Evidence boundary and limitations
The reconstruction answers how the active formula reads retained historical data now. The reconstruction does not establish what Macrovision knew, calculated or published at each earlier date.
Publication posture
The active lens-formula-pack-v0.4 method is applied across the complete period. No July 2026 canonical edition, approval receipt, publication hash, correction authority or forecast record is implied.
Source vintages
ECB, Eurostat and ISM histories include current reconstructions where complete publication-time vintage coverage is not yet available. The history is therefore unsuitable for a true as-published skill claim.
Known source gaps
Known gaps include ISM services after May 2024, euro-area M3 after November 2023, selected euro-area fiscal inputs after 2010 and euro-area HICP inputs after December 2025.
Revision posture
The frozen v0.2.0 files preserve this release, but a future research release may produce different reconstructed values. Any such release must carry a new version and evidence hash.
Frequently asked questions
The answers below define how the reconstructed findings can be used and cited without presenting them as a backdated Macrovision Monthly edition.
Main conclusion
Both regime scores remained Expansionary, revision fragility was in Watch for both regions and evidence confidence ended at the lowest reading in the five-year set for each region.
Publication status
No. The report is published reconstructed research and does not enter the canonical Macrovision Monthly edition register.
Supersession state
Version 0.2.0 replaces the metadata-only presentation with quantified findings, charts and downloadable evidence while retaining the same method, 60-month window and non-canonical boundary. The earlier source remains recoverable through the repository and deployment rollback record.
Use boundary
The review provides research context only and cannot replace a professional user's mandate, liquidity, risk, legal, tax, eligibility or suitability analysis.
Macrovision Historical Review is published as non-canonical research by YieldGuard Ltd, company number 16914415, registered in England and Wales. YieldGuard research is decision support, not investment, legal or tax advice, an offer, a solicitation, brokerage, custody or discretionary investment management. YieldGuard does not recommend execution, allocation, issuance, tokenisation or derivative activity through this review.